Solar Archive 2012

October 23, 2012
NASA The sun emitted a significant solar flare on Oct. 22, 2012, peaking at 11:17 p.m. EDT. The flare came from an active region on the left side of the sun that has been numbered AR 1598, which has already been the source of a number of weaker flares. This flare was classified as an X1.8-class flare.

Solarwatcher: An Impulsive X1.8 Solar Flare was reported at 03:18 UT Today, from active region 11598. The flare produced a short lasting R3 Level Radio Blackout and 10cm Radio Burst. No Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has been observed at the time of making this video, updates will follow



October 1, 2012

Solarwatcher:  The Sep 28th Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) impacted Earth’s magnetic field at 22:20UTC last night sparking strong Geomagnetic storms at high latitudes today. A weak interplanetary shock wave hit Earth at 10:20 UT followed by a stronger CME strike at approximately 22:20 UT. Earth’s magnetic field is still reverberating in response to these impacts  
NOAA Space Weather
 G3 Storm currently in progress, Strong Auroras expected.  Voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices. Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon.

July 19, 2012
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Update:
2012-07-19 13:56 UTC  Last Hurrah? Region 1520, now past west limb, continues to erupt. It produced an R2 (moderate) Radio Blackout and a CME earlier today. Although not clearly earth-directed, forecasters are analyzing it for tangential effects on the geomagnetic field. An S1 (minor) Solar Radiation Storm soon followed the eruption. Updates here.

July 15, 2012

NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Update:
2012-07-15 11:12 UTC Geomagnetic Storm Underway
G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm activity is now occurring as a result of the ongoing coronal mass ejection effects. No further significant activity has occurred, and while Region 1520 has become less of a threat, it still has the potential for further activity. Stay tuned for updates.

July 13, 2012
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center update: July 13, 2012.
Video by Will von Dauster and Katy Human, NOAA.

Also see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hJEvRbyk1Y (Some of the Science behind NOAA’s Space Weather Forecast)

NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colo. is the nation’s official source of alerts, watches and warnings about space weather and its impacts.

The current forecast is for a “mild to moderate” geomagnetic storm to hit tomorrow morning, July 14. This geomagnetic storm could last into Sunday. (NOTE: there could be stronger geomagnetic storming conditions at specific regions in higher latitudes.)

Stronger geomagnetic storms can affect power systems, precision navigation, communications and other advanced technologies. The current event is unlikely to trigger any significant impacts.

If nighttime viewing conditions are clear, aurora could be visible Sat or Sunday nights from lower-latitude areas than usual, possibly as far south as the northern states of Maine and Minnesota, but more likely into Canada.

Solarwatcher Major X1.4 Solar Flare and Earth Directed CME
Active Region 11520 unleashed a Major X1.4 at 16:47 UTC July 12th. Associated with this blast was a Strong R3 Radio Blackout/Fade Out over Central America. As this active region was earth-facing a very strong Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is now Earth-Bound with impact projected late July 14-Early July 15th where strong Geomagnetic storms will be possible.

July 12 2012
NOAA Space Weather
 2012-07-12 19:31 UTC  Solar Eruption Today — Further Analysis. The R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout  today at 12:49 EDT (1649 UTC) was accompanied by an earth-directed CME. Hampered by limited observations of the event, SWPC forecasters are now anticipating the passage of the CME around 1:00 a.m. EDT, Saturday, July 14. G1 (minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity is expected to then ensue through the rest of the day. An S1 (minor) Solar Radiation Storm is now occurring, also a consequence of the flare/CME. The parent active region, NOAA 1520, appears to have retained its ability to erupt, so watch for more.
Solarwatcher.net Major X1.4 Solar Flare and CME
Active Region 11520 just unleashed a major and long duration eruption reaching X1.4 at 16:52 UTC Today. Associated with this blast was a Strong R3 Radio Blackout over central America. A Coronal Mass Ejection(CME) watch is now in affect as this eruption was in an earth-facing position.



July 6, 2012
NOAA Space Weather 
012-07-07 13:17 UTC  R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout – Solar Radiation Storm in Decline. Region 1515 produced an impulsive R3 (Strong) solar flare radio blackout at 2308 UTC (7:08 PM EDT) on July 6.  Initial analysis indicates the coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with this event is not headed directly at Earth.  A high-confidence WSA-Enlil model run is being done to refine that estimate.  Solar Radiation Storm levels did exceed the S1 (Minor) threshold but appear to be in decline at this time.  Additionally, G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is possible through July 8 as a string of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed earlier in the week make their way past Earth.  Stay tuned for updates.

Solarwatcher.net Monster Sunspot 1151 just unleashed a Major X1.1 Solar Flare at 23:08 UTC July 6th. After a constant barrage of M-Class solar flares this huge active region finally produced an X-Class event. Associated with this blast is a 10cm Radio Burst,Type IV Sweep Frequency Event and a proton event is now in progress

July 5, 2012

NOAA Space Weather Elevated solar flare activity continues at this time with levels reaching the R2 (Moderate) level over the past 24 hours. R2 potential conditions via NOAA.

 HF Radio: Limited blackout of HF radio communication on sunlit side, loss of radio contact for tens of minutes.
Navigation: Degradation of low-frequency navigation signals for tens of minutes.

Solarwatcher: Monster Sunspot 1515 continues to unleash impulsive M-Class solar flares. the last 24 hours 12 M-Class flare eruption have been reported. Active Region 11513 produced an M 1.8 flare at 16:39 UTC and the resulting eruption has sent a coronal mass ejection headed earths way with ETA early July 8th.

Jul 3, 2012
We’re currently in R1  radio blackout and increased risk for Geomag storm due to recent solar activity. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/  Solarwatcher: Active Region 11515 continues its barrage by produced two more M Class Flares. A strong M3.8 at 20:07 UTC and M2.0 at 23:56 UTC yesterday. At least two coronal mass ejections (CME’s) have been observed following these eruptions, and are likely to be headed earths way as this sunspot erupted in an earth facing position. Impacts are expected late July 4 into July 5 where strong Geomagnetic Storms may result

May 12, 2012
Solarwatcher A magnetic filament which was in an earth facing position has become unstable and lifted off the solar corona. The resulting eruption produced a Full Halo Coronal Mass Ejection headed earths way. Although its too early to tell but it does appear that the CME will impact the earth sometime May 15. Meanwhile Active Region 11476 is starting to show signs of decay in the rear trailer spots but might get its act together to produce some strong flares just before it rotates off the disk in 3-4 days.

May 10, 2012
Solarwatcher A strong impulsive solar flare peaking to M5.7 by Active Region 11476 at 04:18 UTC May 10th. This event also generated a 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare). This is the 4th M-Class flare in 24 hours from this growing region(now 1050 Millionths). No visible Coronal Mass Ejection(CME) was observed following this eruption.

April 24, 2012
Solarwatcher SUNDIVING COMET: A Sun-Diving was caught on the Soho satellite feed April 23rd, shortly after the comet’s death plunge a large Halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed and appears to have earth directed components. Impact on the earths magnetic field is expected sometime April 27th.

March 12, 2012
solarwatcher: A powerful Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) released off the sun April 9th indicate a potential for a significant event felt here on earth in 9-12 days. A significant volcanic eruption, Major Tornado swarms or outbreak in North America or out of season Typhoon/Tropical Cyclone in the western pacific/Indian ocean region is possible from this energetic event. Time frame April 21-24
NOAA:  G1 Storm in Progress http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

Solarwatcher A spectacular Filament Eruption (Prominence) ripped off the lower southeast quadrant of the sun today and a large Coronal Mass Ejection followed but is not heading for the earth.

CME IMPACT from a coronal mass ejection released from the sun march 10th has slammed into the earths magnetosphere causing a sharp shock to the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). A Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse peaking to 96 nT was detected. Solar winds jumped from 400km/s to almost 600km/s on the impact. A G2 class Geomagnetic storm is possible in the next 1-2 hours.
*Update G2 Geomagnetic Storm is in progress*

March 7, 2012

X5.4 Flare + Earth Directed CME

The second strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 24 and the Second X-Flare from Active Region 11429, after further investigation there may have been a double X Flare as another spike was registered shortly after the initial X 5.4 event with a possible X 1.3 registered. This major event measured X 5.4 at 00:24 UTC and triggered a strong R3 Level Radio Blackout. A coronal mass ejection was captured shortly after and is likely to be headed earths way. more information shortly.

The expected CME from March 4 has impacted the earths magnetic field moments ago, causing the Bz component of the IMP to deviate sharply southward to – 20 nT. Geomagnetic storm should result. A strong Proton event is now in progress.


February 27, 2012
Solarwatcher CME IMPACT: A CME hit Earth’s magnetic field on Feb. 26th at 2050 UT. Although the impact was weak, a solar wind increase to 530 km/s was observed by the ACE Spacecraft. A secondary impact on the earths magnetic-field late Feb 27th did produce a minor G1 Geomagnetic Storm at high latitudes.

February 24, 2012
Spaceweather.com Solar Tsunami. CANYON OF FIRE: A magnetic filament snaking over the sun’s northeastern limb rose up and erupted during the early hours of Feb. 24th. The eruption split the sun’s atmosphere creating a “canyon of fire,” shown here in a movie captured by the Solar Dynamics Observatory.

Solarwatcher A Huge Magnetic Filament has lifted off the solar corona producing a spectacular eruption. This disturbance has an associated solar tsunami (Hyder Flare). Shortly after a significant halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed and it appears will have components heading earth’s way as the eruption was in an earth facing position with the majority of the mass heading east of the Earth, however this still may deliver a glancing blow to the earth on Feb 27th.

February 6, 2012
Spaceweather.com  After a quiet weekend with no flares of any significance, the sun went back to work on Monday morning and launched a bright coronal mass ejection (CME) into space. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded the expanding cloud during the early hours of Feb. 6th.

Solarwatcher A Huge Magnetic Filament has lifted off the solar corona, This disturbance has an associated solar tsunami (Hyder Flare). Shortly after a significant halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed and it appears will have components heading earth’s way as the filament was in an earth facing position with the majority of the mass heading slightly above or northerly, however this still may deliver a glancing blow to the earth Feb 9.

January 27, 2012
Solarwatcher:  X2 Class Flare Major X 2 Class Solar Flare & S2 Radiation Storm Active Region 11402 located on the northwestern limb, unleashed a major X1.7 solar flare today. S2 level Radiation Storm threshold has been exceeded, R3 Level Radio Blackout, 100 MeV proton spike is in progress and a 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) was reported. Immediately after this flare a Full Halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed and components may brush the earths magnetic field Jan 30th.


January 24, 2012 
NASA Earth Observatory
On January 23rd, a high-latitude solar flare was measured as M8.7 in intensity, just below the most intense “X class” of flares. The eruption sent a stream of fast-moving, highly energetic protons toward Earth, provoking the most intense solar energetic particle storm—an S3 on NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center’s scale—since 2005.

The storm has the potential to disrupt some communications and satellite systems and to bring auroras to high-latitude skies.

The flare was accompanied by a coronal mass ejection (CME), a cloud of solar plasma that was ejected from the solar atmosphere in the direction of Earth. The CME was observed by the STEREO and SOHO spacecraft with an initial speed of more than 2,000 kilometers (1,400 miles) per second. It was estimated to reach Earth sometime on January 24 and Mars on January 25. NOAA forecasters were predicting a G2 geomagnetic storm, though a G3 was possible.


January 17, 2012 NOAA – we’re currently in an R1 radio blackout in some areas. Spaceweather:  Finland Auroras are already showing, as earth is expected to have a glancing blow from a coronal mass ejection as you can see in this  SDO movie The same analysis shows that the CME might deliver a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetic field around 1200 UT on Jan. 19th. The impact could cause geomagnetic activity and auroras around the Arctic Circle.
Solarwatcher:  New video on the CME, activity will increase up to and including Jan 20.


December 29, 2011
Solarwatcher Strong CME impact was detected by the ACE Spacecraft Thursday morning. A possible geomagnetic storm may be in progress.

December 26, 2011
Solarwatcher M4 Flare caused a CME which appears to be headed earths way. May send wind speeds to >600. Tropical cyclone potential between 2 – 4 in the coming days, geomagnetic impacts, late Dec 28 to early Dec 29. Two significant coronal hole formations may impact the earth in the form of potential significant EQ in the coming days in southern hemisphere.
Spaceweather.com/ The CME is expected to deliver a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetic field on Dec. 28th at 1200 UT and a direct hit to the planet Mars on Dec. 30th at 1800 UT. Using onboard radiation sensors, NASA’s Curiosity rover might be able to sense the CME when it passes the rover’s spacecraft en route to Mars. Here on Earth, NOAA forecasters estimate a 30-to-40% chance of geomagnetic storms on Dec. 28th when the CME and an incoming solar wind stream could arrive in quick succession. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on Wednesday night
NOAA: Past 24 hours R1 has occurred (HF Radio: Weak or minor degradation of HF radio communication on sunlit side, occasional loss of radio contact. Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals degraded for brief intervals where it will most likely be destroyed in a spectacular light show on Dec. 15/16 (not visible by naked eye). Geminid meteor shower peaks on Dec. 13th and 14th. A solar wind stream is buffeting Earth’s magnetic field, causing mild geomagnetic disturbances and auroras around the Arctic Circle

November 29, 2011 
Solarwatcher CME Impact: At 21:30 UTC, the ACE Spacecraft detected a sudden burst of Solar Winds Increasing levels from 380 km/s to near 550 km/s. This indicated the arrival of the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) sweeping past the spacecraft. A sudden impulse measuring 45nT was detected at 21:55 UTC. The K-Index did increase somewhat, however it did not reach geomagnetic storm status (Kp=4). Minor activity will be possible at very high latitudes.  Activity forecasted for first days of December.
November 27, 2011
Solarwatcher Full Halo CME / S1 Minor Radiation Storm:
At 07:00 UT, a magnetic filament exploded in the northwest quadrant of the solar corona, causing a powerful Coronal Mass Ejection. Analysis of the Lasco C2 and in the latest STEREO Ahead/Behind COR2 images, it does appear that most of the explosion was directed away from Earth. A glancing blow may be possible in 48 hours. The proton levels reached the S1 Minor Radiation Storm threshold and slowly subsiding. (source)
NOAA:  We’re currently in an S1 storm (source) levels should return to normal soon.
Spaceweather:  The impact of the cloud could trigger a geomagnetic storm. Indeed, NOAA forecasters estimate a 58% chance of severe storming around the poles when the CME arrives. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras after nightfall on Monday. Aurora alerts: text, phone

November 23, 2011
Solarwatcher
: Suspected G2 level storm (review video) – A sharp jolt on Earth’s magnetosphere at 07.44 UTC yesterday appears to have been caused by a Halo coronal mass ejection released from the solar corona back on November 20th. Solar activity remains low with the largest flare in the past 24 hours being a C4.9 from active region 1134

Spaceweather: CHANCE OF FLARES: Earth-facing sunspot 1356 has developed a “beta-gamma” magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% chance of such an eruption during the next 24 hours. Solar flare alerts: text, phone.  Northern Lights were visible in the past 24 hours prompted by small magnetic fluctuations in the solar wind.

November 10, 2011 via Solarwatcher
Huge Filament Eruption & M1.1 Solar Flare
A magnetic filament eruption that was detected as an M1.1 solar flare took place at 13:35 UTC Wednesday morning between active regions 11342 and 11342. A powerful Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) ensued and components may be Earth Directed where impact is expected November 13th.

Educational Video: NASA Guide to Solar Flares

here

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